“Digital disruption” is a phrase that did the rounds a lot in the late 1990s and 2000s.
It was coined to describe the phenomenon of the internet and internet-based services disrupting the old order. Some of the famous examples include Google replacing the Yellow/Golden Pages directory books, Netflix signalling the end of video rental stores, and Uber disrupting the taxi industry. There are many other cases, all of which have had varying degrees of disruption.
Of course, the concept of a new industry backed by new technology and ideas supplanting an existing one is not limited to the internet, nor is it new. Consider the famously cheeky first video ever played on MTV, the Buggles Video Killed the Radio Star. The song had been released two years before MTV went on air in August 1981, so it was clearly a deliberate choice; a statement that music television was the present and future.
MTV will cease to be a music channel
Would anyone have predicted that 44 years later, music television would be the one to have been “killed,” and radio, particularly if we include podcasting as a form of talk radio, would be stronger than ever? MTV isn’t shutting down entirely, but its music video channels will close on New Year’s Eve. The flagship MTV channel remains, but it will focus on its reality shows.
Arguably, this tells us a lot about making presumptions about digital disruption. We mentioned previously that the phrase was widely used in the 1990s and 2000s, but it isn’t just as prevalent today. Arguably, the reason for that is that it’s not always clear what will happen. For instance, Uber certainly didn’t kill the taxi sector in the way that many thought. Yes, many taxi firms followed Uber’s blueprint in incorporating technology like GPS, but so, too, did Uber become more like traditional taxi firms.
Another example is Amazon and the killing off of the bookshop. We can certainly say that some damage was done to independent bookshops – many are still struggling – but there has been a backlash against the Amazonification of book-selling, which has helped give some local bookshops a new lease of life. Changes have been made, of course. Consider that your local bookshop might have become more of a social space, with many serving food and drinks or running reading groups. The key is to offer something that can’t be purchased online.
Online and offline casinos complement each other
There are also examples of sectors that live harmoniously with their digital alternatives. Consider the casino sector. In the 1990s, the first internet casinos arrived, and they posed the question of why people would visit one in person. Today, the top Irish online casinos listed by Casino.com all have live dealer tables, for instance, so even the in-person experience is replicated online. Yet, globally, both sectors are still thriving. There’s arguably a ‘special occasion’ feel about the trip to the ‘real’ casino, getting dressed up, etc., but the digital and offline sectors effectively complement each other.
It is clear, then, that making presumptions doesn’t always go to plan, but why is this important? Well, right now, even if digital disruption is no longer a phrase du jour, there is another similar concept doing the rounds – AI disruption. The predicted wave of disruption is part truth, part conjecture, but, as we are told, it will impact every industry, potentially leading to mass job losses. Roles as diverse as radio DJs, animators, and lawyers could be replaced by AI.
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AI will likely evolve job roles
Yet, it is probably worth being sceptical, while at least admitting that AI could have an impact on your industry. As mentioned, things don’t often go the way we expect with these “disruptions,” and just because someone is telling you that AI will take your job, it doesn’t mean it will pan out that way.
We have other evidence from the past, too. Back in the 1980s, we were told that the arrival of the personal computer would lead to the mass layoffs of typewriter typists. In a sense, it did, because the role of typist no longer exists. In fact, the word typist has fallen out of usage. Yet, the roles of those people employed as typists evolved in the modern office. Ireland’s unemployment rate was in the high teens in 1985, whereas it is under 5% today. New tech doesn’t necessarily have to lead to mass unemployment.
In saying that, AI will have an impact in Ireland and elsewhere, and it would be foolish to stick one’s head in the sand and say it won’t impact your business. Yet, the lesson of MTV should be plain to see, as it should be when you go to your local record store and see that vinyl albums are flying out the door. Technology changes things, but it doesn’t always trump the traditional way of doing things.